Bitcoin Onchain Analysis 03.05.2023

Onchain analysis is the examination of data stored on the blockchain network and allows us to see what users are doing and how they behave on the blockchain. This data includes block details, transaction data, and smart contract information.

Users who buy bitcoin in the range of $27640-$28450 on Onchain seem to be highly profitable. Users with a cost of $28500-$29325 seem to be at a loss. The larger the red spheres and the smaller the green spheres, the higher the chance of rise. The larger the green spheres and the smaller the red spheres, the higher the probability of a drop. The level ranges where the orbs are located can work as strong support or strong resistance. The values inside the spheres are the number of Bitcoins held in profit or loss in that price range.

ASOPR data mostly showed a performance of 1 level and above in bull seasons and 1 level and below in bear seasons. In Bitcoin bull season, this data should hold above 1 level.

Bitcoin has experienced a rise after its movement between the green and blue bands in the past, and then it rose up to the orange band. There is no certainty, but if the current price action is the same, today’s orange resistance is $47900The support band price is $19960.

The MVRV Z-Score is used to evaluate when Bitcoin is over/undervalued relative to its “fair value”. When the market value is significantly higher than the realized value, historically it indicates a market top (red zone), while the opposite indicates market bottoms (green zone). It seems to hold in the support zone in the short term, but if the support is lost, it could target a lower support, which would signal lower price levels in Bitcoin.

In Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Chart, values above zero indicate the percentage of holders in profit, while values below zero indicate the percentage in loss.

+Critical levels: 0 / 0.25 / 0.50 / 0.65 / 0.75 and above

Below 0               : Capitulation
0-0.25 range      : Hope/Fear
0.25-0.5 range   : Optimism/Concern
0.5-0.75 range   : Belief/Denial
0.75 and above  : Euphoria/Greed

High rhodl ratio indicates an overheated market and suggests caution. A low rhodl ratio represents an oversold market and can create a buying opportunity. Bitcoin seems to be holding on to the support zone for the short term.

The Active Address Sentiment Indicator data seems to have dropped from the mid-band resistance region we mentioned earlier. Overall, the Bitcoin price is currently at an intermediate value and remains unstable. If the decline continues, we will follow the support zone along with the important price levels.

The level that Bitcoin must hold to maintain its bullish structure is $24087. It is expected to exceed the $37225 level in order to make even more sharp rises. If there is a deep bear season again, the level to watch is now $12043.

NVT Golden Cross seems to have gotten backlash from the risk zone again. The sharp decline of the data could trigger the price decline even more.

You can check out our Onchain Data and Explanations article.

Onchain analysis consist of data from blockchain markets, and only reflects bitcoin inflows and outflows to exchanges. These may be interpret both positive or negative, but does not include a certain market outlook whether bullish or bearish. All analysis shared above is for educational purposes, this post does not include any financial advice.

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