Bitcoin Halving and Impending ETF Approval: Market Impact Analysis

Many investors predict positive outcomes about how the Bitcoin halving process and a potential ETF approval might affect the markets. However, experienced trader and author Peter Brandt believes that these situations will be insignificant.

Market analyst Peter Brandt made predictions contrary to popular belief about two important events thought to positively impact the Bitcoin market, the potential approval of Bitcoin ETF in the United States, and the upcoming Bitcoin Halving.

Claims Bitcoin ETF and Halving Events Will Have Little Impact on the Market

In a post on Twitter, Peter Brandt argued that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States and the Bitcoin halving expected to occur in 2024 would not have a significant impact on the market and Bitcoin price. Brandt dwelled on these topics in his tweet titled “Three things I believe about Bitcoin“:

  • 1. The inevitable OK of a BTC ETF in the U.S. will be a non-event
  • 2. BTC halving will be a non-event Markets discount in advance
  • 3. BTC’s correlation to other mkts is a non-starter. BTC will be at the top of the food chain. That’s the only thing that matters

Brandt also responded to a comment, stating based on his 48 years of experience, that big investors act before certain events and that prices are priced in advance of these events.

However, Brandt pointed out that the fluctuation effects of Bitcoin halving and the impact of a potential Bitcoin ETF have already been priced in. Major companies like BlackRock and Fidelity continue efforts to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF, a fund that will track the actual price of Bitcoin instead of Bitcoin futures. Despite the view that such a product will significantly increase institutional investment in Bitcoin and push up the price, Brandt believes the impact of this event will also be minimal.

*Bitcoin halving is a protocol event that halves the reward for mining new blocks on the blockchain, which significantly slows down the rate of new Bitcoin production. This event usually happens every four years, with the next stop set to occur in 2024. Some investors may view this event as a force that raises Bitcoin’s price, similar to the supply-demand relationship in the traditional economy. Indeed, after the past two halving events, the price of Bitcoin significantly increased, seeming to support this view.

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